IES Monthly Review – Local fuel prices to stay fairly stable

Institute for Energy Security (IES) is an energy think-tank which directs attention to the strong link between energy and security of supply. It provides a stage for research and publications, debates, conferences, consultancy services, policy advocacy, training, and as a conduit to strengthening the world’s energy security. The institute explores these and other avenues to provide new insight into the role of policy, economics and regulations in the performance and security of energy supply.

Independently, and in collaboration with governments, players in the energy industry, academia, consumers, professionals, and experts; the Institute for Energy Security provides data-driven analysis of issues that influence both local and global energy market.

Below is the monthly review of September and October projections from the energy think-tank:

REVIEW OF SEPTEMBER 2017 SECOND PRICING-WINDOW: Local Fuel Market At Ghs 19.85 per gallon, Gasoline price touched it highest level on the local fuel market, as Oil Marketers increased prices over weakness in the local currency against the Dollar, and rise in fuel prices on the international market. Gasoline and Gasoil moved higher over the 14 days, rising 6.57% and 3.45% respectively. Frimps Oil, Compass Oleum, Zen Petroleum, Lucky Oil and Puma Energy are the Oil Marketing Companies(OMCs) selling the cheapest Gasoline and Gasoil in price terms.

World Oil Market Prices The benchmark crude surged 6.8% to settle at $56.92 per barrel, best average closing price for oil producers in recent years, a signal that OPEC has now achieved its goal of flipping Brent crude’s market structure into ‘backwardation’. The rise in price of up to $59.02 per barrel was fueled by improving demand and expectation that producers will extend a deal to limit output. Standard and Poor’s Global Platts benchmark for the period under review, Gasoline price deceased from $626.68 per metric tonne to $589.02 per metric tonne, while Gasoil went up from a previous average of $418.25 per metric tonne to $437.27 per metric tonne.
Local Forex and Fuel Stock Figures put together by our Economic Desk from the banking industry suggest the Cedi was stable for the period under review, maintaining the previous exchange rate of Ghs 4.48 to a Dollar. From September 12 to 27, 2017, the quantity of Gasoline and Gasoil imported into the country was approximately 78,500 metric tonnes and 57,000 metric tonnes respectively to augment the country’s fuel stock. This imported quantity is capable of meeting 13 days of national demand.

PROJECTIONS FOR OCTOBER 2017 FIRST PRICING-WINDOW: Although crude oil price rose by 6.8% over the last 14 days, the Institute for Energy Security (IES) projects fuel prices to remain largely unchanged. This is due to the stability of the local currency against the US Dollar, and the 6% drop in Gasoline price, coupled with the rise in Gasoil price on the world market. This projected price stability is expected to bring relief to petroleum consumers.

RICHMOND ROCKSON Principal Research Analyst Contacts: 0244871916/0555990054