Fuel prices could rise marginally -IES review of July 2017 second pricing-window

IES

The Institute of Energy Security (IES) is predicting a marginal rise in fuel prices according to their July 2017 second pricing-window review.

Below is the full statement from the Institute of Energy Security (IES) on the projected marginal rise.

Local Fuel Market Performance

The second Pricing-window in July 2017 saw prices on the fuel market maintained by Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) as projected in the previous release, especially when the new fuel standards issue by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) was postponed. Prices at the pump for Gasoline (Petrol) and Gasoil (Diesel) recorded no price change. Average pump price for Gasoline and Gasoil remain same at Ghs3.79 per litre and Ghs3.78 per litre respectively.

IES Market-scan showed that Frimps Oil, Lucky Oil, Compass Oleum, Benab, Sky had the lowest prices at the pump for Gasoline, whiles Puma joins these five to sell the cheapest Gasoil on the market.

World Oil Market Prices

Brent crude price recorded no significant change, from the previous average price of $49.07 per barrel as it is closed this window at $49.38 per barrel. Brent crude price has been rising lately, with the commodity currently trading at $52.47 per barrel. According to Financial Times, this is as result of signs of shrinking supplies. The world’s biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia is expected to further reduce supplies in August. US Energy Department’s data showed last week that US Crude and Gasoline stockpiles fell greater than expected.

Standard and Poor’s Platts benchmark shows an increase in prices of both Gasoline and Gasoil. Gasoline hinged up to $519.50 per metric tonne from $504.57 per metric tonne (a change of 2.96%), while Gasoil recorded an upward adjustment from $437.27 per metric tonne to $452.45 per metric tonne, representing a 3.47% change.

Local Forex and Fuel Stock

Data gathered by our Economic desk from the banking sector suggest a fairly stable Ghana Cedi against the U.S. Dollar, as the local currency closed an average of Ghs4.39 from a previous average of Ghs4.38. The first time in 6 consecutive windows the currency has recorded some form of stability. Stock of Gasoline and Gasoil remains low, with the Gasoline recording its lowest level since the beginning of the year. Gasoline stock level is 37million litres, while Gasoil stock is 152million litres.

PROJECTIONS FOR AUGUST 2017 FIRST PRICING-WINDOW

With a relatively stable local currency, a stable crude oil price on the international market, a low fuel stock, and a continuous rise in the price of Gasoline and Gasoil on the global market, the Institute for Energy Security (IES) foresees fuel prices at the pump to rise marginally, especially with 50ppm Platts pricing expected to take effect. IES is still monitoring the implementation of National Petroleum Authority (NPA)’s reviewed standard of fuel, scheduled to begin on August 1, 2017, from the initially proposed July 1, 2017.

Signed: RICHMOND ROCKSON
Principal Research Analyst
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