Fuel prices expected to rise – IES

Institute for Energy Security (IES) is an energy think-tank which directs attention to the strong link between energy and security of supply. It provides a stage for research and publications, debates, conferences, consultancy services, policy advocacy, training, and as a conduit to strengthening the world’s energy security. The institute explores these and other avenues to provide new insight into the role of policy, economics and regulations in the performance and security of energy supply.

Independently, and in collaboration with governments, players in the energy industry, academia, consumers, professionals, and experts; the Institute for Energy Security provides data-driven analysis of issues that influence both local and global energy market.

Below is is the review of September pricing window

Local Fuel Market Performance: Fuel prices were projected to remain unchanged, with a possible shock at the pump with prices going up due to the depreciation of the cedi against the dollar. The local fuel market recorded an average increase of 1.9%, with a litre of Gasoline (Petrol) selling at Ghs4.12, and Gasoil selling at Ghs4.11 on market average terms.

IES Market-scan shows Zen Petroleum, Lucky Oil, Champion Oil, Frimps Oil and Puma Energy are selling the
cheapest at the pump.

World Oil Market Prices: Brent crude price recorded a percentage change of 3.4%, from the previous average price of $52.19 per barrel to the current average of $53.97 per barrel. Brent price has been rising lately with the commodity currently trading at $55.47 per barrel after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a smaller-than-expected build in crude oil inventories, due to the Gulf Coast refinery shutdowns.

Standard and Poor’s Platts benchmark shows an astronomical increase in prices of both Gasoline and Gasoil. For the period under review, Gasoline prices went up by an average of 13.17%, from $553.75 per metric tonne to $626.68 per metric tonne. Gasoil prices also increased by an average of 7.91 %, currently averaging at $511.05 per metric tonne from $473.58 per metric tonne.

Local Forex and Fuel Stock: Data from the banking sector as gathered by IES Economic Desk shows the Ghana Cedi depreciated marginally from Ghs4.44 to Ghs4.48, representing 0.90%. Stock level for Gasoline and Gasoil decreased from 304million litres to 218 million litres with Gasoline stock levels relatively lower.

PROJECTIONS FOR SEPTEMBER 2017 SECOND PRICING-WINDOW

With the depreciation of the Ghana Cedi, the increase in prices of crude oil, Gasoline and Gasoil on the international market; the Institute for Energy Security (IES) can project an increase in fuel prices at the pump
within the next pricing-window which commences tomorrow. IES wishes to encourage Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) to be fair in their pricing as international product prices are likely to fall within the same window.

Signed: RICHMOND ROCKSON
Principal Research Analyst
Contacts: 0244871916/0555990054